Visit to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)

Our last visit in 2024 was to WIIW. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies is one of the principle centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with worldwide recognition.

In the Global Go To Think Tank Report of the University of Pennsylvania WIIW was elected twice to 3rd position in a worldwide comparison of Think Tanks after Bruegel (Belgium) and Brookings Institution (USA).

Its thematic work is focused on macroeconomic developments and structural change, international economics, labour markets and social issues, as well as on selected issues related to sectoral and regional economic developments. Thus it is the Austrian think tank for first-hand expertise on Central, East and Southeast Europe with international highly skilled professionals mainly from the countries they are specialized on.

We were received by the Deputy Director of WIIW, Richard Grieverson, who gave us a "Presentation and outlook of the economic situation for Austria, CEE/SEE countries after the US Presidential Elections".

After a short presentation of the activities of WIIW Deputy Director Grieveson switched to the outcome of the US Presidential Elections, which he considered being a serious problem for Europe, especially as Europe is very dependent concerning security. He mentioned Trump was obsessed with tariffs and especially Germany would suffer. But the Central European countries would be affected indirectly, as they are highly dependent on the German economy. Deputy Director Grieveson pointed out that the US is for the EU much more important than China. If NATO was in doubt it would be a serious problem for FDI, Foreign Direct Investment. NATO is the condition for the success of green field investments in CEE/SEE. Up to now the economic development in CEE/SEE however was better than in Germany. Some near shore effect could be seen especially in the Western Balkans. In the CEE/SEE countries the inflation is falling. The economies of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary was growing, Austria was in recession. The Russian economy was booming for specific reasons (war economy) but with high inflation. Because of Russian attacks on the energy installations and the relentless war the economic results in Ukraine were decreasing. According to Deputy Director Grieveson Austria faced higher energy costs combined with higher wages, thus loosing competitiveness. On the other side Poland is back again. For Croatia, Romania, Slovakia, Poland and the Baltic States the outlook for investments was good. Some countries did not use the EU funds sufficiently. Deputy Director Grieveson saw German industry in trouble, especially the car industry, which had been the motor of the industrial development before. China was leading in the development of advanced batteries. Europe as a whole was facing the high energy prices, much higher than in the US. If this was continuing for a longer period it could lead to a general recession. A new growth model would need innovations. Concerning the digital sphere Grieveson considered the CEE/SEE countries in a good position, especially Estonia. Furthermore Grieveson said, that EU enlargement would be good for getting ressources and new markets. He would see the expansion of the EU positive.

The presentation was followed by a lively Q&A session ending in individual discussions with refreshments and snacks.

Richard Grieveson is Deputy Director at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) and a member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG). He coordinates wiiw’s analysis and forecasting of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In addition he works on European policy analysis, European integration, EU enlargement, economic history, and political economy. He holds degrees from the universities of Cambridge, Vienna and Birkbeck. Previously he worked as a Director in the Emerging Europe Sovereigns team at Fitch Ratings and Regional Manager in the Europe team at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

His comprehesive scientific publications are listed on the website of the WIIW.